The 2024 Regional Assessment Report (RAR) highlights the Arab region’s increasingly complex and interconnected risk landscape, shaped by climate change, protracted conflicts, socio-economic disparities, and weak governance systems. It underscores that these systemic challenges amplify vulnerabilities and erode resilience, demanding integrated approaches that combine disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and sustainable development.
Risk Landscape and Climate Trends
The region faces intensified hazards: rising temperatures (+0.39°C/decade since 1991, with the Middle East warming fastest), declining and erratic precipitation, prolonged droughts, and increasing flooding events. Coastal areas, especially Alexandria, Basra, and Nouakchott, are threatened by sea level rise. Water scarcity is aggravated by transboundary dependencies and poor resource management. Climate extremes are projected to worsen health impacts, threaten food security, and increase displacement. Institutional weaknesses, low governance capacity, and corruption hinder effective responses, making governance reform a key priority.
Systemic Risk Drivers
Two major drivers dominate: natural resource scarcity (especially water) and weak institutions. Drought is identified as a major “threat multiplier,” exacerbating conflict, migration, and economic fragility. The governance deficit—marked by ineffective institutions and low public trust—limits the region’s ability to implement climate policies and risk-informed development.
Human Mobility, Gender, and Health
Climate and disaster-induced displacement is rising, with millions already internally displaced or refugees. Current policies inadequately integrate mobility considerations into DRR and CCA frameworks. Gender inequality is a critical vulnerability factor; women’s empowerment, participation in decision-making, and economic engagement are emphasized as essential for resilience. Emerging health risks—such as heat-related mortality, vector-borne diseases, and mental health issues—are closely linked to climate change impacts.
Agriculture, Food Security, and Rural Risks
Water scarcity, land degradation, and extreme weather threaten agrifood systems. The report advocates for multi-risk management approaches to safeguard food production, enhance livelihoods, and integrate DRR into agricultural planning.
Progress on the Sendai Framework
At the mid-point of implementation, Arab states show growing DRR research, hazard mapping, and disaster loss databases, but progress is uneven. A siloed, single-hazard approach remains dominant, and there are gaps in multi-hazard early warning systems, integration of DRR into education, and use of disaggregated data for protecting vulnerable groups. Regional cooperation, transboundary risk assessments, and technology-based solutions are underdeveloped.
Recommendations and Way Forward
The RAR calls for:
Strengthening governance, rule of law, and institutional capacity.
Investing in people-centred multi-hazard early warning systems.
Integrating DRR and CCA into development planning.
Expanding financing and de-risking mechanisms for resilience investments.
Enhancing gender-responsive and inclusive policies.
Leveraging technological innovation, data-driven decision-making, and regional cooperation.
The report emphasizes that immediate, coordinated action is necessary to protect communities, promote sustainability, and move the Arab region from vulnerability to resilience.