Released in May 2025, the World Bank report, "Global Megatrends and Human Development in the MENA Region," examines three major trends and their implications for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
Key Insights from the Report:
Rapid Demographic Shift: The MENA region is projected to have the fastest-growing elderly population globally, with the number of people aged 65 and older expected to increase by 243% between 2020 and 2050. This will place significant pressure on social and economic systems.
Severe Climate Vulnerability: MENA is highly susceptible to climate change. The report warns that average maximum temperatures could reach nearly 50°C by the end of the century, and a 2°C global temperature rise could reduce freshwater availability by up to 45%.
Technological Disruption and Job Automation: The region faces a high risk of job displacement due to automation. The report estimates that nearly 45% of jobs are automatable, and over 50% of jobs in specific occupations are at risk of being displaced by AI.
Dual-Nature of Megatrends: The report frames these megatrends as both challenges and opportunities. For example, an aging population creates a new "care economy," while the green and digital transitions offer new job opportunities and a potential productivity boost.
Policy Imperatives: The report emphasizes that strategic human development policies are crucial to prepare for these changes. It outlines ten key policy areas, including strengthening lifelong learning, expanding long-term care, and reforming pension programs to adapt to longer work lives.
