This research paper analyzes cancer trends in Lebanon, a middle-income country in the Middle East, by extracting and analyzing all relevant data from the National Cancer Registry (NCR) spanning 2008 to 2015. Using logarithmic models, the authors calculated 10-year projections for the top cancer sites until 2025. The study identified the most common cancers (breast, lung, colorectal, bladder, and prostate) and concluded that while the overall incidence rate was steady during the study period, future projections signal a significant increase in cases, necessitating reform of the NCR and urgent public health interventions.
Key Themes
Epidemiological Trend Analysis: Detailed review of cancer incidence rates in Lebanon from 2008 to 2015.
Cancer Projections: Forecasting of cancer cases until 2025, showing expected significant increases in breast, lung, and colorectal cancers.
Top Cancers Identification: Breast, lung, and colorectal cancers are the most common overall, with prostate, lung, and bladder being the highest among males.
Risk Factors: The primary drivers of the increasing trend are attributed to an aging population, alongside prevalent risk factors like smoking, obesity, poor diet, and environmental pollution.
Policy and Public Health Recommendations: Calls for the implementation of strict tobacco control measures and necessary reforms to the National Cancer Registry for improved data collection and prognosis.
