UNEP’s “Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target – Continued Collective Inaction Puts Global Temperature Goal at Risk”. Published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in November 2025, this annual flagship report delivers a stark warning on the widening gap between current emission trajectories and global climate goals. It evaluates progress toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement and outlines the urgent measures needed to keep the 1.5 °C limit within reach.
Key Findings
Warming Projections: Even if all current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, global temperature rise is projected between 2.3 °C and 2.5 °C by the end of the century. Under existing policies, the figure could reach around 2.8 °C.
Required Reductions: To align with the Paris targets, annual emissions must decline by about 35% by 2035 to meet the 2 °C goal and roughly 55% by 2035 to stay below 1.5 °C.
Limited Time Window: The report stresses that while avoiding a temporary overshoot of 1.5 °C is technically possible, it demands rapid, large-scale action and transformative change across all sectors.
Call for Collective Action: UNEP urges stronger commitments, accelerated renewable energy deployment, and enhanced international cooperation to bridge the emissions gap this decade.
