Lebanon Conflict Scenario Flash Report was published in March 2026 by the Lebanon Crisis Analytics Team (LCAT) with support from the European Union and implemented by Mercy Corps.
The report analyzes the evolving conflict dynamics in Lebanon. It presents short-, medium-, and worst-case scenarios to support humanitarian planning and policymaking.
The report highlights the rapid deterioration of security, humanitarian, and economic conditions, emphasizing how Lebanon’s fragile systems are being further strained by conflict spillovers.
Key insights:
Up to 1 million+ people could be displaced under worst-case escalation scenarios.
At least 122 airstrikes in a single day (March 2, 2026), signaling a level of intensity comparable to past wars.
$6.8B in damages and $7.2B in economic losses from the previous conflict already weakened Lebanon before this escalation.
