Brussels, Belgium (Enmaeya News) — The European Union is bracing for a potential trade war with the United States after Washington threatened to impose sweeping 30% tariffs on EU imports starting Aug. 1, should trade negotiations collapse.
Caught off guard by a letter warning of the tariffs last weekend, the European Commission has drawn up a €72 billion countertariff package. The plan targets a broad range of U.S. goods, from industrial equipment and aircraft to agricultural and consumer products.
Ireland, Germany and the Netherlands are among the most vulnerable EU economies, with key sectors heavily reliant on U.S. imports. The proposed retaliatory measures could disrupt critical supply chains and dent economic growth across the bloc.
Billions at Stake
The proposed EU tariffs would hit U.S. industrial exports — including aircraft, machinery, medical equipment and chemicals — valued at €65.7 billion. The remainder includes agricultural goods such as bourbon whiskey, as well as less-expected items like toothbrushes, amusement rides and latex.
Aircraft imports, worth nearly €11 billion, are especially at risk. Ireland, which leads the EU in aircraft leasing, stands to lose significantly. The country manages 37% of the world’s commercial fleet, and aircraft imports alone account for more than 1% of its GDP.
Germany, France and the Netherlands are also heavily exposed. Germany, for example, imported nearly €7.5 billion worth of U.S. vehicles and parts in 2024, while machinery imports affected by countertariffs total over €9.4 billion.
Minimal Inflation, But Supply Chain Risks Loom
Despite the broad scope of tariffs, the economic impact may be limited in the short term. “EU tariffs on U.S. goods would have only a modest impact on inflation — just a few tenths of a percentage point,” said Sylvain Broyer, chief European economist at S&P Global Ratings.
However, economists warn that the deeper threat lies in supply chain disruptions. The EU depends heavily on U.S. services in technology, payments and consulting. Additionally, close supply chain ties between Western Europe and Central and Eastern European nations could intensify the fallout.
Chemicals, Plastics, Medical Devices Also Targeted
The European Commission’s hit list includes U.S. chemicals (€13.7B to Belgium alone), plastics (€3B to Belgium) and medical devices (€4.63B to the Netherlands). These sectors are tightly integrated with EU industries, leaving Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands particularly exposed.
The U.S. aerospace sector could also suffer. Boeing, which earned more than $8.7 billion from Europe in 2024, may be hit hard by EU measures. Airbus, its European rival, could face retaliation from Washington — risking a tit-for-tat tariff exchange that would further strain transatlantic trade.
Agricultural Sector Faces Catastrophic Hit
Retaliatory tariffs on €6.4 billion in U.S. agricultural products, such as bourbon, could spark a response targeting EU food and beverage exports. France’s wine sector and Ireland’s whiskey industry are especially concerned. French lobbying groups have warned of "catastrophic" consequences should the U.S. follow through with its tariffs.
The European Commission says it is still committed to finding a resolution through dialogue. However, officials have made it clear that Brussels is prepared to respond decisively if the U.S. triggers the tariff escalation.
