Schenzen, China (Enmaeya News) — The record-breaking marine heatwaves of 2023 have exposed surprising gaps in climate projections, pointing to underappreciated drivers of ocean warming, a new study shows.

Scientists from Southern University of Science and Technology in China, the U.S. and Thailand identified three key factors that combined to push sea temperatures into uncharted territory: diminished cloud cover, which let more solar energy reach the surface; weaker surface winds, reducing evaporative cooling; and altered ocean currents.

“Figures suggest heat in the world’s oceans is accumulating exponentially,” said lead author Zhenzhong Zeng of Southern University. If confirmed, this exponential trend would run counter to most current climate models, which predict a steadier rate of ocean warming.

Because the ocean’s response to heat is both delayed and enduring, prolonged warm periods can amplify extreme weather on land and hamper forecasting. Early 2024 studies already documented severe marine heatwaves in Europe and the U.K., where sea surface temperatures ran as much as 4 °C above average.

Not all researchers agree the shift is permanent. “We don’t know what’s going to happen next year, and it [ocean temperatures] might just come back to something that’s much more, let’s say, normal,” said Neil Holbrook, a climate scientist at the University of Tasmania, noting that current analyses draw on only a few years of data.

Still, the study’s authors stress an urgent need to deepen our understanding of ocean-atmosphere mechanics. “While we urgently need to reduce our GHG emissions, it is critical that we also continue to measure, monitor and model what our future Earth is going to be like,” said Jaci Brown of Australia’s CSIRO. “If we don’t, we can’t prepare, and we are walking into the unknown with dire consequences for our future food, health and security.”