Paris, France (Enmaeya News) — The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global oil demand is expected to grow by 680,000 barrels per day this year. The agency raised its forecast for supply growth following OPEC+’s decision to increase production but lowered its demand outlook due to weakness in major economies.
In its latest oil market report, the IEA projected global supply would rise by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025, up from its earlier estimate of 2.1 million.
This marks a downward revision from the previously expected 700,000-barrel-per-day increase. The agency noted that recent data reflects weak demand in key economies and that, with consumer confidence still falling, a strong rebound appears unlikely.
Oil prices slipped in the latest trading session, with Brent crude down 0.29% to $65.93 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate down 0.38% to $62.93.
Despite the OPEC+ output hike, the IEA expects non-OPEC+ producers to remain the main drivers of global supply growth this year and next. It also forecasts global refinery throughput to reach near-record levels of 85.6 million barrels per day in August, even after lowering demand projections.
The IEA report came a day after OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand next year while cutting its outlook for supply growth from the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ producers. Higher demand expectations combined with slower growth outside the alliance could support OPEC+’s plan to boost production and regain market share after years of cuts aimed at propping up prices.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC said it expects global oil demand to rise by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, an increase of 100,000 from previous forecasts, while keeping its 2025 estimate unchanged. These figures remain at the higher end of industry expectations. By contrast, the IEA projects this year’s demand growth at just 680,000 barrels per day.
OPEC also raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3%, citing stronger-than-expected performances in India, China, and Brazil, as well as new trade agreements signed by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.
The group said data from early in the second half of 2025 “confirms the resilience of global growth despite ongoing uncertainty over U.S. trade policies and broader geopolitical risks.”