BEIRUT (Enmaeya News) — September 26, 2025
Countries around the world are facing a major challenge as their populations shrink quickly. From Eastern Europe to the Middle East and beyond, fewer births, higher death rates, people leaving their countries, and ongoing conflicts are changing societies, economies, and public services.
Experts warn that without strong policies to encourage more births, keep young people in their countries, and manage immigration, many nations could face slow economic growth, worker shortages, and social problems.
The phenomenon is particularly acute in countries facing war or displacement crises, where the human and economic toll is severe, while even stable nations struggle to make up for declining fertility with immigration.
Eastern Europe
Bulgaria is among the fastest-declining populations globally, projected to drop 22.5% from 6.9 million in 2020 to 5.4 million by 2050. Analysts attribute the decline to high mortality, low fertility, and mass emigration, compounded by limited job opportunities and declining living standards.
Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, and Greece have also experienced emigration-driven declines. Ukraine’s ongoing war has exacerbated demographic challenges. Birth rates have dropped below 1.0, and mass displacement has depopulated parts of the country while accelerating population aging, as most refugees are women, youth, and children. Russia faces similar pressures, with emigration, lower fertility, and war-related casualties expected to reduce its population by 25% to 50% by 2100.
Eastern Europe as a region is expected to experience the largest percentage population losses between 2020 and 2050.
Middle East
Countries in active war face particularly steep population declines. In Gaza, nearly 24,000 trauma-related cases were documented between August 2024 and February 2025, with explosions accounting for roughly two-thirds of injuries. Malnutrition, limited medical access, and high unemployment have worsened conditions, highlighting the human toll of ongoing hostilities.
Sudan faces one of the world’s largest displacement crises, with over 12.3 million internally displaced residents and more than 3.5 million fleeing the country; children make up 53% of those displaced.
Portugal is projected to see a 10.9% population decline over the next three decades, from 10.2 million to 9.1 million, prompting authorities to actively attract immigrants.
Global Patterns
Population decline, or depopulation, refers to a gradual reduction in the number of residents over time, caused by aging populations, low fertility, high infant mortality, emigration, and elevated death rates from conflict, disease, or catastrophic events.
The effects of population decline are mixed. Fewer people can lead to higher per capita resources, reduced pollution, and less congestion. But aging populations and shrinking workforces strain government programs and lower GDP growth.
Globally, countries affected by conflict or low fertility, including Ukraine, Russia, Myanmar, Syria, Afghanistan, Palestine, Venezuela, Sudan, Yemen, and Japan, face steep population declines, with Japan’s aging population further compounded by a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman and limited immigration.
Humanitarian agencies stress that addressing population decline in conflict zones requires international aid and long-term recovery strategies. Analysts warn that without policies to boost fertility, immigration, or retention of younger populations, global depopulation trends may accelerate in the coming decades.
