NEW YORK/LONDON (Enmaeya News) — September 30, 2025
Global stock markets went up on Monday while the U.S. dollar dropped. Investors are worried about a possible U.S. government shutdown that could delay important economic reports, like the September jobs report.
Gold prices hit a record high because of the weaker dollar and concerns about the shutdown.
President Donald Trump will meet with leaders from both parties in Congress on Monday to discuss extending government funding. If no deal is made, the government could shut down on Wednesday, the same day new U.S. tariffs on trucks, drugs, and other goods start.
Investors seem calm about the shutdown risk, remembering that past shutdowns caused only small drops in the stock market. The S&P 500 went up 0.3%, the Nasdaq rose 0.5%, and the Dow Jones increased 0.2%.
The global MSCI All-World Index rose 0.4%, and Europe’s STOXX 600 went up 0.2%. The STOXX 600 is on track for its third month of gains in a row.
Experts say there have been only five U.S. government shutdowns in the past 30 years. The longest one was 34 days during Trump’s first term, and the stock market fell at first but then recovered.
If the shutdown lasts a long time, it could make it hard for the Federal Reserve to get economic data before its meeting on October 29. Bank of America analysts say the Fed might have to use private data instead, which could slightly lower the chance of a rate cut in October.
Right now, markets expect a 90% chance the Fed will cut rates in October and about a 65% chance of another cut in December.
Bank of America also said a shutdown would reduce economic growth by about 0.1% for each week it lasts. But they warned that if the government fires workers permanently, it could hurt jobs and consumer confidence more.
There is also uncertainty about a meeting Tuesday of U.S. military leaders in Virginia, which Trump is expected to attend.
Usually, the last quarter of the year is good for stocks because investors start buying more. In bonds, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell to 4.14% after strong economic data last week.
The dollar index fell 0.2% to 97.945, after gaining last week. A MUFG strategist said the dollar will likely weaken more before the year ends if the Fed cuts rates twice.
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.17255 but stayed near the lower part of its recent trading range. The dollar also fell 0.6% against the Japanese yen to 148.6.
Gold reached a record $3,833.37 per ounce before dropping slightly to $3,828.17, up 1.8%.
Oil prices dropped after crude oil started flowing again from northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region to Turkey for the first time in over two years.
Reuters reported that OPEC+ is expected to increase oil production by at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday.
Brent crude fell 3.5% to $67.68 a barrel, and U.S. crude dropped 3.8% to $63.21 a barrel.
