LEBANON (Enmaeya News) - October 18, 2025

The World Bank has decreased its 2025 growth forecast for Lebanon from 4.7% to 3.5%, citing regional conflict, a faltering tourism sector, and delayed economic reforms, according to L'Orient Today.

In its latest Macro Poverty Outlook report, the Bank still anticipates the Lebanese economy will rebound in 2026, projecting growth of 4.0%, but warns that the current pace is weaker than previously expected.

The downward revision comes amid effects from the June conflict between Israel and Iran, which sharply dented tourism revenues.

The new forecast contradicts the Lebanese government’s own target: Economy and Trade Minister Amer Bsat recently told donor officials that he expects 5% GDP growth in 2025, a level not seen since 2011.

For Lebanon, the revision underscores how fragile the recovery remains. Growth of 3.5% would still represent a rebound from a 7.1% contraction in 2024, but many analysts say the smaller upside reflects structural constraints that require urgent reform.

With this adjustment, Lebanon’s recovery trajectory now hinges more critically on external support, foreign investment, and the pace at which policy changes are implemented.