LEBANON - Bank Audi’s latest economic report estimates that Lebanon’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by about 5 percent in 2025, reversing a sharp contraction in 2024.
The bank attributes this improvement partly to a political breakthrough early in 2025 and an inflow of fresh U.S. dollars into the banking system, which helped stabilize economic activity and financial confidence.
The 2025 growth estimate is higher than the World Bank’s projection of roughly 3.5 percent, though both institutions point to signs of a fragile recovery driven by sectors such as tourism and renewed macroeconomic stability.
Bank Audi’s report then presents three possible economic scenarios for 2026:
Positive scenario (45 % probability): Continued political and security stability, significant reconstruction efforts, robust foreign capital inflows, and key economic reforms. This scenario would support stronger economic expansion.
Medium scenario (35 % probability): Security remains stable, but reconstruction is limited, political disagreements persist, and major reforms and an IMF deal do not materialize. Growth would be modest but positive.
Negative scenario (20 % probability): Deteriorating security conditions, deepening political divisions, absence of meaningful reforms, and weak foreign investment. Under this path, Lebanon could see economic stagnation or decline again.
The report underscores that Lebanon’s recovery remains highly contingent on political stability, reform implementation, and external financial support in a context still marked by structural challenges.
