WORLD - The global recovery in youth employment that followed the COVID-19 pandemic has stalled, leaving millions of young people facing a more uncertain transition from education to work.
The International Labour Organization’s (ILO) Global Employment Trends for Youth 2026: Back to the Future finds that slowing economic growth, weaker job creation, geopolitical tensions and rapid technological change are making it harder for young people to secure decent work.
The report warns that the challenge is no longer simply about whether young people can find jobs, but whether those jobs offer stability, protection and a realistic path into adulthood.
Youth Unemployment is Rising Again
After reaching its lowest level in more than two decades in 2023, the global youth unemployment rate increased slightly to 12.4 percent in 2025. That translates to around 67 million unemployed young people worldwide, about 2 million more than in 2023.
The deterioration is broad. Youth unemployment either increased or remained broadly unchanged in eight of the world’s 11 subregions between 2023 and 2025. The Arab States recorded the highest rate at 26.2 percent, followed by Northern Africa at 22.6 percent. Both regions also experienced increases compared with 2023.
The problem is particularly serious for young people entering the labour market for the first time. Globally, first-time jobseekers accounted for 45.1 percent of unemployed people aged 20 to 29 in the latest available data, up from 43.4 percent around 2016. The report says this points to growing difficulties for young entrants as employers become more cautious about hiring.
Millions Are Outside Work and Education
Unemployment, however, captures only part of the problem.
The ILO also tracks young people who are not in employment, education or training, known as NEET. In 2025, the global NEET rate reached 20 percent, up from 19.7 percent in 2023. This means more than 257 million young people were outside both work and education or training, which is an increase of 9 million in just two years.
The situation is particularly concerning in the Arab States, where the NEET rate stood at 32.4 percent in 2025. Northern Africa recorded a rate of 30.1 percent. The ILO cautions that high NEET rates can indicate that young people are becoming discouraged and withdrawing from the labour market altogether.
The burden is also strongly gendered. Globally, more than two out of every three young people classified as NEET are women. The NEET rate for young women was 27.4 percent in 2025, more than twice the 13.1 percent recorded for young men. The report links this gap to factors including unpaid care responsibilities, limited access to affordable childcare, discrimination and precarious employment.
The Jobs Available are Changing
Even when young people find work, the quality and type of employment are changing.
The number of young people in employment reached 476 million in 2025, the highest level since 2013. But employment is growing more slowly than the youth population, causing the youth employment-to-population ratio to fall to 37.1 percent.
One of the report’s major concerns is the erosion of middle-skilled jobs. These include clerical work, sales and services, skilled agricultural occupations, craft and trade jobs, and plant and machine operators. Many of these positions have traditionally provided entry points for young workers.
At the same time, higher-skilled fields such as science, engineering, health and information and communications technology have generally continued to expand. This creates a growing divide between the skills young people have and the jobs available to them.
AI is Adding Another Layer of Uncertainty
Artificial intelligence is intensifying concerns about the future of entry-level work.
The ILO estimates that 6.1 percent of jobs currently held by young people aged 15 to 29 fall into occupations with high AI exposure. The report stresses, however, that exposure does not automatically mean job loss. In many cases, AI may transform tasks rather than eliminate entire occupations.
The report also identifies another obstacle: “experience inflation”. Young workers increasingly encounter entry-level vacancies that demand years of previous experience or skills traditionally associated with more senior employees. This creates an “entry-level Catch-22”: young people need experience to get a job, but cannot gain that experience without being given an opportunity.
What Does This Mean for Lebanon?
Lebanon is not given a separate youth unemployment or NEET rate in this report, so the ILO’s regional figures should not be treated as Lebanon-specific statistics.
However, Lebanon is directly connected to one of the report’s key areas of concern. It is one of eight countries included in the ILO-led PROSPECTS Partnership, which works to improve the socio-economic inclusion of forcibly displaced people and host communities through education, skills development, employment and social protection.
The report specifically notes that Job Search Clubs have helped young displaced people transition into employment in Lebanon and Jordan.
For Lebanon, the broader lesson is therefore significant: improving youth employment cannot rely only on producing more graduates or training young people in new technologies. The ILO argues that governments need policies that create jobs, strengthen education and apprenticeships, improve employment services and extend social protection. It also calls for skills that combine technical abilities with social and cognitive skills, alongside lifelong learning and a human-centred approach to AI.
Bringing Young People “Back to the Future”
The ILO’s central message is that young people need more than jobs. They need decent work that provides security, dignity and opportunities to build sustainable careers.
With global youth unemployment projected to remain around 12.3 percent through 2027 and the number of young people in NEET status expected to exceed 264 million, the report argues that waiting for labour markets to correct themselves is not enough.
The task ahead is to make the transition from education to employment work again before a generation of young people becomes permanently locked out of the opportunities that work is meant to provide.
