Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, published in November 2025 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), presents the latest global assessment of greenhouse gas emissions trajectories and the gap between current commitments under the Paris Agreement and what is needed to limit global warming to agreed temperature goals.
Key Insights
• Projected Warming & NDC Impact: Full implementation of current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would result in global temperatures rising an estimated 2.3–2.5 °C over this century, compared with 2.8 °C under existing policies, underscoring that pledges alone are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goals of “well below 2 °C” and pursuing efforts toward 1.5 °C.
• Emissions Reduction Needs: To align with the Paris goals, the report highlights the need for steeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions — about 35 % reduction by 2035 for a 2 °C pathway and 55 % for a 1.5 °C pathway (both relative to 2019 levels) — requiring rapid and unprecedented mitigation efforts across all sectors.
• 1.5 °C Overshoot Likely: Given current policies and pledges, the world is expected to exceed the 1.5 °C threshold very likely within the next decade, making it essential to limit the magnitude and duration of overshoot to reduce long-term risks and reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal technologies.
• Available Solutions & Challenges: While proven low-carbon technologies — including wind, solar, and energy efficiency solutions — are increasingly deployed and becoming more affordable, the report stresses that political will, financial support (especially to developing countries), and international cooperation are critical to scale up action and close the emissions gap.
• Implications for Climate Policy: The findings reinforce that current levels of ambition in climate pledges and implementation mechanisms need significant strengthening to bridge the emissions gap, accelerate mitigation, and steer global pathways closer to the Paris Agreement objectives.
