"The 2026 War: Economic and Social Impact" report published by InfoPro in March 2026 frames the conflict as the third phase of a compound crisis — following the 2024 war and the fragile, base-effect-driven recovery of 2025 — and warns that Lebanon risks shifting from a cycle of conflict and recovery into prolonged crisis defined by aid dependency and outmigration. Daily economic losses are estimated at $60–80 million, with the IIF projecting a GDP contraction of 12–16% depending on conflict duration. On the social side, up to one million people were displaced within the first month, with 1,268 killed and 150,000 children pushed out of school. Sectorally, hospitality is near-total shutdown, retail revenues in Beirut down 60–80%, and 22% of agricultural land damaged, with Gulf export routes blocked across industry and agriculture. Food security is partially cushioned by poultry sector surplus and continued production in the Bekaa.
