Middle East – Ongoing military escalation in the Middle East is placing tens of millions of people at risk of falling into poverty across 162 countries, according to new projections released today by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
While the impacts are concentrated in countries directly affected by the conflict and those dependent on energy imports, the findings point to long-term damage that could also affect poorer nations far removed from the conflict zones.
The findings were published in a new policy brief titled: “Military Escalation in the Middle East: Reversals in Global Development and Policy Response Options,” which uses Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelling to assess economic impacts under scenarios ranging from short-term disruptions to shocks lasting up to eight months.
Now in its sixth week, and despite the temporary ceasefire, the impacts are shifting from an immediate phase to a longer-term trajectory.
The report warns that continued escalation increases the risk of accelerated impoverishment in vulnerable countries. Under the worst-case scenario, an additional 32 million people could be pushed into poverty.
The brief highlights that countries in the Gulf region, Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Small Island Developing States are among the most exposed to these effects.
UNDP Administrator and UN Under-Secretary-General Achim Steiner stated:
“War is the opposite of development. Conflicts can erase in weeks what countries have built over years of progress".
He added that the impacts of escalation are not limited to directly affected countries but disproportionately affect those least able to absorb rising energy and food prices, forcing difficult trade-offs between stabilizing prices today and funding health, education, and jobs tomorrow, stressing that “this is unacceptable and preventable".
The programme outlines policy options to mitigate the crisis, most notably targeted and temporary cash transfers to protect poor and vulnerable households as a first line of defence. Depending on the scenario, up to US$6 billion may be required to effectively implement this measure.
The recommendations also include temporary and targeted subsidies or vouchers for basic electricity or cooking gas consumption, while warning against broad energy subsidies that disproportionately benefit wealthier groups and are financially unsustainable in the long term.
This brief is part of a series of socio-economic analyses issued by UNDP on the impacts of the Middle East crisis in Iran and the region, aiming to support policymakers in understanding the implications for human development and identifying response options. Further analyses covering the Asia-Pacific region are expected to follow.
